Fuel Is Getting More Expensive Without a Shortage: Why Drivers in Ukraine Are Already Preparing to Use Their Own Cars Less
The Ukrainian fuel market is entering a period when prices may rise even without queues at gas stations and without a physical shortage of gasoline or diesel. Resources are available on the market, but the economics of sales are becoming increasingly tough imports are becoming more expensive, gas station chains’ margins are shrinking, logistics and security require more spending, and attacks on fuel infrastructure create additional pressure.
Time for Action has analyzed why the price of fuel may become not only a financial problem for drivers, but also a factor that changes transport behavior in Ukraine. According to the results of a BlaBlaCar survey of 15,000 drivers from across the country, four out of ten are ready to limit the use of private transport if fuel rises above 105 UAH per liter. This is not an abstract figure, but a psychological threshold after which a personal car stops being a usual everyday means of transport for some Ukrainians. The figure of 105 UAH per liter shows how sensitive travel expenses have become. For many drivers, a car remains a necessity trips to work, transporting family, traveling between cities, access to settlements where public transport operates irregularly. But even under such conditions, people begin to calculate every route. If the cost of one tank approaches a level that noticeably hits the family budget, decisions change quickly fewer unnecessary trips, more shared routes, and more careful road planning. That is why shared trips are no longer only a way to save money. They are becoming a way to adapt to a new price reality. When a driver takes passengers, they partially compensate for fuel expenses. When passengers travel together, they get a cheaper alternative to a private trip or less convenient public transport. As a result, a new habit is forming: the road becomes a shared expense, not the personal financial burden of one person.
The reason for possible price increases is not limited only to global oil prices, although they remain one of the main factors. Ukraine is largely dependent on external fuel purchases. If petroleum products become more expensive on the international market, this almost automatically increases the cost price for Ukrainian operators. The market cannot exist separately from global quotations for long, especially when it comes to imported resources. Recently, drivers may not have seen sharp jumps on gas station boards, but this does not mean there is no pressure. Gas station chains have been taking on part of the price increase for some time, without passing all costs on to consumers. This is clearly seen in the example of gasoline: in April, global quotations rose by 137 dollars per ton, which roughly corresponds to 4.5 UAH per liter. At the same time, retail prices barely changed. Such a pause looks convenient for drivers, but for business it means reduced profitability.
Gas stations cannot hold prices back indefinitely if purchase costs are rising and expenses remain high. The margins of gas station chains have already noticeably decreased. If earlier the difference between the customs value of fuel and the price at the pump allowed operators to cover logistics, salaries, operating expenses and still leave a profit, now this cushion has almost disappeared. For diesel, the difference between wholesale and retail prices has shrunk to about 5 UAH per liter. For gasoline, the situation is even more difficult: while in 2025 the average spread was about 9 UAH per liter, now it has fallen to around 2 UAH per liter. According to Kuyun, this often does not even cover basic expenses transportation, logistics, salaries, and the daily operation of the network. Under such conditions, some operators, especially smaller companies, may work without profit or even at a loss. This is an important point for understanding future prices. When consumers see a stable price on the board, it may seem that the market is holding steady. But behind this stability there may be not an absence of problems, but the temporary absorption of costs by the chains themselves. If global quotations do not fall and expenses do not decrease, the next step becomes a gradual increase in retail prices. A separate risk is the security situation. Regular strikes on oil depots and gas stations create new costs for the market. If earlier Russian attacks were more often aimed at large storage facilities, now strikes directly on gas stations are being recorded. For chains, this means repairs, loss of equipment, stronger security measures, changes in supply routes, and additional logistics costs. All of this eventually affects the final price.
For now, there is no fuel shortage in Ukraine. This is the key difference between the current situation and crisis periods when drivers faced sales limits or a lack of resources. Today the problem is different fuel is available, but selling it is becoming more expensive for every participant in the chain from the importer to the driver. That is why the most realistic scenario is not a sharp market collapse, but a gradual price increase. Its pace will depend on several factors: global quotations, government decisions, currency fluctuations, the security situation, and the ability of operators to restrain prices for some more time. But the market will not be able to sell fuel below an economically justified level for long. For drivers, this means moving toward more careful expense planning. Some people are already ready to change their habits even before the price crosses the critical threshold. Shared trips, combining routes, using cars less often for short distances, choosing more economical routes all of this will become more visible if fuel continues to rise in price.
The price of 105 UAH per liter may become the threshold after which a private car for a significant share of drivers turns from everyday transport into a resource used more carefully. This does not mean a mass refusal of cars, but it does mean a change in behavior. People will not stop traveling, but they will more often ask themselves is this trip really necessary, can it be combined with another, is it worth taking passengers, or would an alternative be more beneficial. The Ukrainian fuel market is currently holding without a shortage, but under strong price pressure. Import dependence, shrinking margins, expensive purchases, and strikes on infrastructure are gradually pushing prices upward. For business, this is a matter of survival; for drivers, a matter of the daily budget; for the country, another sign of how war and the global economy are changing familiar everyday decisions.
About the Author
Related posts:
Fuel Prices Rise Without a Shortage: How Panic Spins Up Costs and What Is Really Driving the Market 
Fuel Prices in Ukraine Have Stopped Rising, but It Is Too Early to Talk About Stable Decline 
Fuel on the edge of fluctuation what is happening to prices and what drivers should expect in the near future 
Fuel prices in Ukraine surge: what is happening on the market and whether there are grounds for suspicions
