Ukraine’s Gas Reserves Exceed 10 bcm: What It Means for Winter 2025–2026
As of August 5, 2025, Ukraine’s underground gas storage facilities contained 10 bcm of natural gas just 32.3% of total capacity. According to analysts from ExPro, this is the lowest level in the past 12 years. At the same time, for the first time since the beginning of the year, the gap compared to last year’s pace has started to narrow. Compared to the same period in 2024, gas volumes are down by 9%, or 990 mcm. Last year, early August levels were higher, but injection rates were lower.
According to “Ukrainski Novyny”, from April 17 to August 5, 2025, nearly 4.65 bcm of gas was injected into storage 1.6 times more than over the same period last year. July set a recent record: gas imports reached 833 mcm, which is 1.5 times more than in June and 16 times higher than in July 2024. This indicates a significant ramp-up in procurement ahead of the heating season.
Winter Needs: 13 bcm
Energy experts agree that to ensure a stable 2025/26 heating season, Ukraine must accumulate around 13 bcm of gas. This will require importing at least 4.6 bcm more before the cold sets in.
The Ministry of Energy acknowledges that risks remain high due to potential supply disruptions and reliance on transit routes. However, the government insists the storage plan can be met.
Expert Comments
Energy analyst Serhiy Melnychuk told Time for Action:
“The injection pace in recent weeks is a positive sign, but the gap from last year remains. We need to understand that low reserves at the start of August create a narrower window to meet the target before the heating season starts.”
Economist Iryna Kovalenko stressed that gas reserves affect not only energy security but also price stability:
“The less gas in storage at the start of the season, the greater the pressure on prices. For industry, that means higher production costs; for households a heavier tariff burden.”
Comparison with 2024
- August 2024: approximately 10.99 bcm in storage, slower injection rates, with imports in July of just about 50 mcm.
- August 2025: 10 bcm in storage, but July imports were 16 times higher than last year, indicating active winter preparations.
What to Expect
The ENTSOG forecast for the European gas market also takes Ukrainian storage into account: if current injection rates and stable supplies are maintained, reserves could reach 90% of the target level by the end of summer. However, this forecast remains vulnerable to any disruptions in logistics, particularly due to military risks or changes in transit routes. As energy consultant Andriy Levchenko sums up:
“Ukraine is entering the most critical stage of winter preparation. There is every reason to believe that the 13 bcm target for winter is achievable, but it will require uninterrupted supplies and the absence of unexpected breakdowns.”
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