Why the Hryvnia Will Remain Stable in May Only With Active NBU Involvement

In May 2026, Ukraine’s currency market will most likely remain without sharp fluctuations, but this stability should not be seen as complete equilibrium. The hryvnia will continue to remain under moderate devaluation pressure, while the National Bank will play the main role in restraining exchange rate jumps. Time for Action examined why experts do not expect a currency shock in May, what dollar exchange rate limits are considered the most likely, and what the hryvnia’s stability will depend on in the coming weeks.

May looks like a transitional month for the currency market. Seasonal agricultural factors, which influence the exchange rate more actively in autumn, no longer have the same importance, while new strong factors have not yet formed. Because of this, the market may move without a clear trend, but not without risks. Most forecasts converge around one benchmark the dollar exchange rate will likely remain near UAH 44. Expert estimates differ in detail, but the overall picture remains fairly restrained. Andrii Shevchyshyn allows fluctuations within UAH 43.75-44.75 per dollar. Oleksandr Pecherytsyn estimates the possible range at UAH 43.5-44.2. Oleksandr Parashchii does not expect significant changes and believes the exchange rate will remain around UAH 44 or even lower. Yurii Krokhmal names a wider corridor UAH 43.35-44.75 per dollar. These forecasts show that the market does not expect a sharp weakening of the hryvnia. At the same time, almost all estimates leave room for moderate pressure on the national currency. In other words, this is not about the hryvnia strengthening, but about keeping it within controlled limits. The main stabilizing factor remains the policy of the National Bank. Ukraine’s currency market continues to operate under a regime of managed flexibility, when the exchange rate may change, but sharp movements are smoothed out by interventions. According to Serhii Mamedov’s estimates, the NBU may allocate up to $800 million per week to maintain the balance between currency demand and supply. That is why the current stability of the hryvnia has a managed character. It rests not only on the behavior of businesses or households, but also on the regulator’s ability to enter the market in time. If demand for foreign currency rises, the NBU can soften the pressure by selling currency from reserves. If the market calms down, the need for interventions decreases.

Monetary policy will also influence the exchange rate. Expected inflation of up to 2% per month and more than 9% annually creates grounds for tougher decisions. Under such a scenario, the key policy rate could rise to 15.5-16%, and the yield on hryvnia instruments could increase. This makes the hryvnia more attractive for savings and partly restrains demand for foreign currency.

International reserves and external financial support remain important factors. According to Serhii Naumov, their availability is what allows discussion not of the risk of sharp devaluation, but of a managed exchange rate dynamic. For Ukraine, this is critical, because the need for external financing in 2026 is estimated at more than $45 billion. The regularity of aid inflows directly affects market expectations. The European Union’s support package of €90 billionhas already reduced devaluation sentiment. If financing arrives without delays, the NBU will have more room to support stability, and market participants will have fewer reasons for panic demand for foreign currency. The euro in May will depend not only on the situation in Ukraine, but also on the global euro-dollar exchange rate. According to expert estimates, the European currency may remain within UAH 50-52.5, although in some scenarios short-term movements to UAH 53 are possible. Even small changes in the EUR/USD pair can significantly affect Ukrainian quotations: a fluctuation of 0.01 in this pair adds or subtracts about half a hryvnia in the domestic exchange rate. The zloty will move according to a similar logic. Its exchange rate will depend on the dynamics of the euro and the general situation on external markets. At the moment, experts do not expect significant deviations unless new strong external shocks appear. The main risks for the hryvnia are formed not only inside Ukraine. The war remains an important factor, as does geopolitical tension in the Middle East. A possible escalation around Iran could affect oil prices, and more expensive energy resources could increase pressure on the Ukrainian currency. If the situation stabilizes, this risk may decrease.

Even without dramatic events, external tension supports devaluation expectations. Market participants respond not only to actual changes, but also to the likelihood of the situation worsening. That is why information about the war, energy markets, international aid and NBU decisions affects the behavior of businesses and households. The baseline scenario for May looks relatively calm the dollar within UAH 43.5-44.5, moderate volatility and active participation by the National Bank. The pessimistic scenario is linked to an escalation of the geopolitical situation, rising energy prices or delays in international financing. In that case, pressure on the hryvnia may increase. The optimistic scenario assumes regular aid inflows and stabilization of external risks, which would allow the exchange rate to move more calmly.

May 2026 will most likely not become a month of currency shock. But there are also no grounds yet to speak of the hryvnia’s independent resilience. The exchange rate will be maintained by a combination of several factors: NBU interventions, international aid, reserves, tighter monetary policy and the absence of sharp external shocks. The main feature of the May currency market is not a strong hryvnia, but a controlled hryvnia. It may remain near UAH 44 per dollar if the regulator keeps an active presence, financing arrives regularly, and external risks do not move into a new phase of escalation.