Ukraine-Russia Negotiations: Why the Diplomatic Process Continues While the Risk of New Strikes Remains High
The negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia has not stopped, but has moved into a phase where the main signals are not always heard publicly. On the surface, there is a pause at the highest level, the absence of a leaders’ meeting and Moscow’s rigid position. But behind this pause, technical channels remain, prisoner exchanges, non-public contacts and the work of mediators. This means that the diplomatic framework has not been destroyed, although a real political breakthrough is still far away.
On the one hand, Ukraine is trying to keep the peace track alive and use any window of opportunity to stop hostilities. On the other hand, Russia continues massive strikes, increases the number of drones and missiles, and therefore does not demonstrate readiness for rapid de-escalation in practice. That is why words about negotiations should not be read as a sign of imminent peace. Rather, this is a complex game in which diplomacy, military pressure and international politics move simultaneously. Kyrylo Budanov directly stated that he does not consider the negotiation process blocked:
“Regarding the negotiation process: I have never said that it is at a dead end and I continue to stand by this opinion. Certain processes are ongoing, you are right, they are, let’s say, not entirely public”
This phrase is important because it separates two levels of negotiations. The public level really does look stalled: there is no meeting of presidents, no announced agreement, no clear calendar for ending hostilities. But the technical level has not disappeared. It is there that issues of exchanges, humanitarian arrangements, communication channels and preliminary positions of the parties can be resolved.
Budanov acknowledged that there is a pause at the highest level. But prisoner exchanges remain one of the proofs that contact between the parties has not been completely cut off. In a war where every agreement passes through mutual distrust, even such technical processes matter. They do not mean that a major agreement is approaching, but they show: communication has not been reduced to zero. At the same time, the assessment of Russia’s intentions sounds restrained. Budanov does not present Moscow as a side that sincerely seeks peace. On the contrary, he speaks about this carefully and without illusions:
“Regarding whether Russia wants peace I don’t know, I think it does not want it very much. But if we ask whether it will be ready for certain actions in the near future, I think that now, more than ever, these prospects have appeared. Therefore, I believe in this process, no matter what”
This assessment reflects the main difference between the desire for peace and readiness for certain actions. Russia may not want a full-fledged peace on terms acceptable to Ukraine. But it may be forced to move toward certain steps if military, economic, diplomatic or political circumstances put pressure on it. This is probably what is meant by the emergence of prospects. The thesis about the possible end of hostilities by winter also sounds not like a guarantee, but like a political goal that Ukraine is trying to implement. According to Budanov, this corresponds to the direct instruction of the President of Ukraine:
“I confirm, this is in fact his effort as soon as possible, preferably by winter, to stop hostilities. And I, as Head of the President’s Office, will definitely do everything to achieve the goal set by the president. In my opinion, it is absolutely correct, timely and well thought out”
When asked whether such a goal is realistic, Budanov answered briefly:
“Realistic”
This is one of the most important political statements in this block. It shows that Kyiv is not abandoning the scenario of ending the hot phase of the war within a relatively short timeframe. But the realism of the goal does not mean it’s automatic fulfillment. Such a result requires not only Ukraine’s position, but also a change in Russia’s behavior, active actions by mediators and the convergence of international factors. Budanov also emphasized:
“And if Russia refuses in the end that can also happen, do not forget. However, there are now real signs that the groundwork for ending hostilities already exists”
This wording leaves room for two scenarios. The first Russia agrees to certain steps if diplomatic and political pressure becomes sufficient. The second Moscow uses negotiations to drag out time, continues to pressure with strikes and puts forward conditions unacceptable to Ukraine. That is why Kyiv simultaneously speaks about negotiation prospects and does not lower the level of military readiness.
A separate topic is rumors about a possible “ceasefire” on Trinity Sunday. Budanov essentially did not confirm the existence of such arrangements:
“I have not received such information. Moreover, you can look at how much was struck yesterday by the Russian Federation, how many human casualties there were. Therefore, what are we talking about now, I do not quite understand”
This answer is important because it removes the illusion of an unofficial holiday calm. If Russia continues strikes, and the number of victims and destruction grows, there is no basis to speak about a real ceasefire without confirmed agreements. Under such conditions, any rumors about “silence” can create a dangerous sense of relaxation in society.
Negotiation activity since the beginning of 2026, in particular through US mediation, shows that Washington remains one of the key factors in this process. Several rounds of contacts made it possible to maintain diplomatic movement, but the issue of a meeting at the highest level slowed the process. The President of Ukraine has repeatedly declared readiness to sit down at the negotiating table with the Russian leadership, but Moscow constantly puts forward conditions. The American factor may strengthen because of the US domestic political calendar. Ahead of the midterm elections to Congress, the US president’s administration may be interested in demonstrating progress on the war in Ukraine. Expected visits by American envoys to Kyiv and Moscow may become part of an attempt to revive negotiations. But even US activity does not guarantee a result if Russia decides that continuing the war gives it more advantages than an agreement. This is where the main contradiction of the moment emerges. While the diplomatic process is being kept alive, Russia is increasing aerial terror. At the end of May, it carried out several large-scale attacks on Ukraine. On the night of May 24, 690 means of aerial attack were used, including various types of missiles and 600 strike, imitation and attack drones. Kyiv became the main direction of the strike. On the night of May 31, the occupiers attacked Ukraine with 229 drones, including Shahed, “Gerbera”, “Italmas” and “Parodiya” decoy drones.
Separately revealing is the information that in May Russia launched a record 8,150 drones at Ukraine 24% more than in April. Ukrainian air defense, according to the cited data, intercepted 91% of Russian drones and missiles during the month. But even a high interception rate does not cancel the main problem the scale of attacks is growing, and every weapon that is not intercepted can mean dead, wounded and new destruction. Therefore, talk of negotiations must not be separated from the reality of Russian strikes. Russia may conduct or imitate negotiations, but at the same time continue to hit cities, energy infrastructure, civilian infrastructure and residential areas. This is its familiar tactic to create pressure at the front and in the rear, exhaust air defense, demoralize society and at the same time test the West’s readiness to support Ukraine. That is why at the end of this story, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s warning about possible new massive strikes is especially important. He stressed that air defense forces are working around the clock and are ready to repel attacks within the limits of available capabilities:
“Our defenders of the sky are ready 24/7 as much as possible with the available supply”
This wording contains both support for Ukrainian air defense and an honest reminder of limited resources. Ukrainian defenders of the sky work constantly, but the effectiveness of defense depends on supplies, the number of missiles, air defense systems, radars and assistance from partners. Therefore, the call not to ignore air raid alerts is not a formality, but a matter of survival.
The main conclusion is that Ukraine is now in a period of double tension. On the one hand, the negotiation process remains alive and may receive a new impulse. On the other hand, Russia continues military pressure and may be preparing new massive attacks. A diplomatic window may indeed appear before winter, but it does not remove the risk of escalation in the coming weeks. For Ukraine, this means the need to hold two directions at the same time work toward ending hostilities and prepare for new strikes. The peace process may move forward non-publicly, but the safety of citizens depends on very practical things the readiness of air defense, discipline during air raid alerts, shelters and rapid response to threats. As long as Russia launches missiles and drones, any talk of negotiations must be accompanied by a sober understanding diplomacy does not cancel danger, it only creates a chance to reduce it.
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