Ukraine Sowing Campaign 2026 Farmers Maintain Acreage but Face Harvest Risks
Ukrainian farmers in 2026 plan to sow about 21.2 million hectares with grain and oilseed crops. The figure is almost in line with last year’s level. Formally, the crop structure remains stable, however the conditions under which the sector enters the new season significantly complicate the production process.
Time for Action has analyzed how the crop structure will change, which crops are showing growth, what is happening with corn, and what risks may affect the 2026 harvest.
Traditionally, Ukrainian farms focus on six key crops: corn, wheat, barley, sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed. Their dominant role is determined by both domestic demand and export orientation. In 2026, no significant structural shifts are expected. The area under grain crops wheat, corn, and barley will amount to about 11.05 million hectares compared to 10.8 million hectares last year. Wheat may show slight growth up to 5.25 million hectares. Barley will also increase to 1.4 million hectares. Corn, however, may lose about 100 thousand hectares, declining to 4.4 million hectares. The reason for the redistribution lies in climatic conditions. The reduction in corn sowing is projected primarily in the southern regions, where moisture shortages make the crop less suitable for cultivation.
“We understand that corn, as a crop, is already poorly suited for cultivation there due to the low level of moisture,” says Oleh Khomenko, Director General of UCAB.
In the northern and western regions, where moisture conditions are more stable, no significant reduction in corn acreage is expected. Thus, farmers are adapting the crop structure to climatic realities without abandoning the crop entirely.
At the same time, acreage is only one indicator. The key risks of the season are related to production resources. The shortage of mineral fertilizers remains a serious threat. Industry associations have appealed to government ministries to allow the import of limestone-ammonium nitrate through seaports, as the lack of nitrogen fertilizers could lead to harvest losses. According to expert estimates, the country may lose up to 10% of grain production due to fertilizer shortages. Under more pessimistic scenarios, the risk of crop loss could reach 20%. The preliminary forecast for total grain output stands at about 50 million tons, however this figure directly depends on resource availability and weather conditions.
Another factor is export logistics. Transport constraints and instability of routes affect crop profitability and create caution in planning. In addition, the loss of territories due to hostilities continues to limit the potential land base. The sector enters the sowing campaign with an acute labor shortage. Mobilization of workers and stricter criteria for defining critically important enterprises have complicated staff reservation procedures. The most severe shortages are observed among machine operators, tractor drivers, heavy equipment drivers, and technical specialists.
“In conditions where the agricultural cycle cannot be stopped or postponed, even the loss of several key specialists creates serious risks for the production process. In fact, we are operating at the limit of our staffing capacity,” says Kateryna Bilyk, a representative of an agricultural company.
Changes in the regulatory framework have complicated the procedure for confirming critically important enterprise status. Requirements for financial indicators and average wage levels have been increased. Procedures have become longer, creating additional risks for medium-sized farms.
“In fact, the new criteria are oriented toward large companies. Medium-scale enterprises risk losing their status not because they cease operations, but because of changes in formal requirements,” Bilyk concludes.
The labor shortage has already led to the partial suspension of certain operations, primarily in logistics. Companies are forced to postpone modernization and investment projects. At the same time, costs for fuel, repairs, and leasing continue to rise, while room for maneuver remains limited.
Thus, in 2026 the agricultural sector maintains acreage under key crops but operates under accumulated risks. Stability in crop structure does not mean stability in production. Weather factors, fertilizer shortages, labor constraints, and regulatory changes create an environment in which even maintaining last year’s indicators requires significant effort.
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