Winter at the Edge: How Energy Strikes Failed to Break Ukraine
The winter of 2025–2026 entered wartime reality as the harshest one yet. Severe frosts that began at the end of last year coincided with systematic Russian strikes on the energy sector, and this combination looked like a test of endurance. Moscow’s logic was easy to read: when temperatures drop to minus twenty and below, electricity, heat, and water stop being comfort and become a condition for survival. Yet even in this configuration, Ukraine did not break, and the scenario of “forcing capitulation” failed.
The night of February 9, 2026 became characteristic both in timing and scale. Russia launched one and a half hundred drones and about a dozen Iskander missiles. Not everything was intercepted by Ukraine’s air defense system, as noted by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The consequences for civilian infrastructure were direct: consumers in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions were partially left without electricity, the Ministry of Energy reported.
This happened against the backdrop of already accumulated damage. Energy workers were simultaneously eliminating the consequences of two massive attacks on the energy system over the past week. Restoration continued both at power plants and at high-voltage substations that ensure the output of nuclear power plant capacity. The Ministry of Energy explained that nuclear generation remains “partially unloaded,” meaning it is not operating at full capacity. This reality was also confirmed by the IAEA, the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency: Energoatom was indeed forced to reduce electricity production at nuclear power plants due to Russia’s attack on substations and also due to disconnections from power transmission lines.
Russian strikes in recent days targeted not only electricity but the entire energy chain. On February 9, a gas pipeline was hit in Odesa region, as reported by the head of the regional military administration, Oleh Kiper. Separately, the Russian army struck a high-voltage substation in Novovolynsk, Volyn region. Mayor Borys Karpus reported that 80,000 residents were left without power, and critical infrastructure in the city is operating on generators. Novovolynsk is located very close to the border with Poland, and therefore to NATO territory. Geography here is not a decorative detail but a factor that adds a political dimension to the attack: every such strike near the Alliance’s border underscores how close the war comes to Europe.
The massive attacks of previous days demonstrated the choice of targets. On February 7, Russian forces carried out another large-scale attack on Ukraine’s energy facilities. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal stated that the strikes hit substations and 750 kV and 330 kV overhead lines “the backbone of Ukraine’s energy network” as well as generation facilities: the Burshtyn TPP in Ivano-Frankivsk region and the Dobrotvir TPP in Lviv region. On February 8, energy facilities of Naftogaz in Poltava region were hit. The company stated that since the beginning of the year this was already the 19th attack on its facilities by Russia. When strikes are repeated with such frequency, it is difficult to speak of “accident” or “situational decisions” this is already a sustained mode.
Ukrainian authorities directly describe this strategy as hybrid warfare, where the key target is not only a transformer or a power line, but the state of society itself. President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at a meeting with lecturers and students of the Kyiv Aviation Institute, explained the enemy’s logic: “This is a task for hybrid warfare to divide society in order to weaken it and break it. If you break civilians, the military will break too, at least the risk is high. This is what the enemy is doing.” He added about Ukraine’s response: “What does Ukraine do? In response to energy attacks, we strike their energy sector. They cannot live with light, in comfort, in calm, while we are freezing and, frankly, only losing. They receive a response. Do we deliver a mirror response? No, we do not have the resources they have.”
This position is important not only politically, but as an explanation of why the Russian campaign did not produce the expected result. Moscow seeks to create a chain: cold – irritation – distrust – division – pressure on the authorities concessions. But for this scheme to work, there must be a mass belief that capitulation will bring safety and warmth. Instead, sociological data show a different picture.
The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology recorded several indicative figures in November–December 2025. A majority of citizens (62%) expressed readiness to endure the war for as long as necessary, although about a third do not know when peace will come. Separately, KIIS notes: 65% state that they are ready to endure the war for as long as necessary (in December 2025 62%, in September 2025 62%). And another key indicator: 88% believe that by striking the energy sector Russia is trying to leave Ukrainians without electricity and heat and force them to capitulate. That is, society does not “fail to understand what is happening,” but on the contrary sees the intent and names it directly.
KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetskyi, in the explanatory note to the survey, formulated this as a test of resilience that Ukraine is passing in real time: “The harsh winter of 2025–2026 is another challenge for Ukraine and Ukrainians will Ukrainians be able to withstand prolonged severe frosts with electricity and heating outages? Most of the winter (and hopefully the main frosts) are behind us. Ukrainians once again demonstrate that they are able to survive in the most difficult conditions. And not just survive, but also maintain optimism and will.”
At the same time, the legal framing of these strikes is intensifying. The Security Service of Ukraine has classified attacks on energy infrastructure in the middle of winter as crimes against humanity. In January, SBU spokesperson Artem Dekhtiarenko stated: “Strikes on the energy sector are a consistent policy of the Kremlin aimed at the destruction of the Ukrainian people,” and that they bear signs of crimes against humanity. Minister Shmyhal last week spoke of “winter genocide,” emphasizing that strikes are carried out in such a way that people are left without electricity, heat, and water during severe frosts. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has also called this strategy an “act of genocide.” In the same context, it is noted that the International Criminal Court has issued four arrest warrants in cases related to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which occur every winter since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Against this backdrop, another factor temporarily shifts the balance the weather. Forecasters expect the severe cold to begin receding in the middle of this week. Ukrainian forecasts indicate the end of the period of the strongest frosts after nights when temperatures reached minus twenty degrees, and in some northern regions even minus twenty-two and twenty-five. Well-known forecaster Nataliia Didenko described this change emotionally and vividly: “It seems that the coming night in Ukraine will finally end the period of fierce cold. Severe frosts are running out of breath under the relentless and beautiful atmospheric progress.” According to forecasts, on February 10 at night temperatures will be minus 12 to 20, in the north up to minus 22, after which frosts will gradually retreat. During the day on Tuesday, most regions will see minus 4 to 11, in the south and west minus 2 to 4, and in Zakarpattia up to plus 2. More noticeable warming is expected afterward. Didenko summarized: “And although there will of course still be fluctuations of cold, winter is not over, nevertheless we have a wonderful forecast for a wonderful synoptic result: we held on, the anticyclone is collapsing, severe frosts are dissolving in fear and from the very thought that after February March will come.”
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However, warming does not negate the fact that the energy sector is operating under constant risk. After previous attacks, a state of emergency is in effect in Ukraine’s energy sector. The Russian side, through a statement by Sergei Lavrov on February 5, is trying to shift responsibility, claiming that Ukraine allegedly was the first to strike Russia’s energy infrastructure. But the overall picture seen inside Ukraine and recorded by state institutions leads to a different conclusion: strikes on heat and electricity in the middle of a severe winter are an attempt to force people to make a political choice under pressure of physical survival. This winter has demonstrated that hitting the power grid is not the same as breaking society. When 80,000 people in Novovolynsk are left without electricity and the city keeps critical infrastructure running on generators, this is neither romance nor symbolism. It is the hard routine of war, where survival consists of small practical decisions, discipline, and mutual support. And it is at this level that the Russian strategy encounters what it fails to account for: even the harshest frosts do not guarantee capitulation if society understands who creates this cold and why.
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Related posts:
Energy on the Edge: Why Ukraine Is Convening an “Energy Ramstein” in the Middle of Winter 
Winter under fire how Russia is once again striking Ukraine’s energy sector at the coldest moment 
Ukraine, Winter, and Electricity: Is the Energy Sector Ready to Withstand Attacks? 
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