Will Ukraine’s Energy System Survive the Winter: What Has Changed and Why Blackouts Are Not Inevitable
Russia’s war against Ukraine is now in its third year, testing not only defense but also critical infrastructure especially the energy system. Massive shelling, missile and drone attacks, damaged stations this is the daily reality for the sector. On the eve of another winter, Ukrainian energy specialists and the country’s leadership are sending restrained but confident signals: “Russia will not be able to leave Ukraine without light and heat.” Is this really the case? What is known about the state of the energy system, and why do risks remain high even despite record preparations?
DTEK CEO Maksym Tymchenko, in several interviews including with the Spanish publication EL PAÍS and Ukrainian media clearly states:
“The enemy attacks our facilities every day from the first day of the war. Our main task is to restore as many generating capacities as possible.”
According to Tymchenko, last year, over 90% of DTEK’s generating infrastructure was damaged, but the company managed to restore about 70-80%.
“We are well prepared to survive the winter: we have sufficient production capacities, both thermal and hydroelectric power plants, a large amount of coal in storage, as well as gas, which we continue to import,”emphasizes the head of DTEK.
The authorities also confirm:
“Currently, Ukraine can produce less than half the electricity than before the war. However, this amount is enough for the country to get through the winter without large-scale blackouts.”
From Attacks to Resilience: What Previous Years Have Taught
Last season, Ukraine’s energy system survived one of the most difficult periods in its history. DTEK, Ukrhydroenergo, Ukrenergo, and other operators faced unprecedented pressure but managed to preserve the integrity of the system though at the cost of frequent outages, emergency repairs, and significant losses.
“Last year they damaged over 90% of our generating infrastructure, but we managed to recover,” says Tymchenko.
This year, the experience of previous attacks has been used to strengthen defenses, improve operational coordination with air defense, and create reserves.
“We can, for example, predict many of these attacks using drones or missiles, and this allows us to make changes to the mode of operation to minimize losses,” explains the head of DTEK.
The night of October 10 was another serious test for energy workers: Russia launched massive attacks on energy infrastructure in various regions of the country. Explosions were heard in Kyiv, Sumy, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, Poltava, Chernihiv, and other cities.
In the Poltava region, an enemy attack damaged an energy facility in the Kremenchuk district part of the region was left without electricity. In Kyiv, outages were recorded in six districts of the capital, and emergency schedules were in effect in the Kyiv region. DTEK facilities were also affected: several of the company’s thermal power plants suffered serious damage
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Will Ukraine Withstand: Analyzing Reserves and Risks
According to Tymchenko, the company has already restored 70-80% of lost capacities and plans to bring the rest back online before the onset of cold weather.
“We are well prepared for the cold season. We have sufficient production capacities both thermal and hydroelectric power plants, significant coal reserves, and imported gas,” states the head of DTEK.
The key challenge is not a technical deficit, but the intensity of new attacks and the level of damage.
“We will survive the next winter, as we did the previous ones. And the level of suffering of our population will depend primarily on the scale of Russian attacks and the effectiveness of our air forces,” Tymchenko emphasizes.
All the main figures voiced by Tymchenko are confirmed by independent media and relevant government reports. Indeed, energy specialists have done everything possible to approach this winter as ready as possible.
A huge role is played by accumulated coal reserves, optimization of gas purchases, new defense organization, and more flexible interaction with the military and air defense. At the same time, as Tymchenko himself admits, “the survival of the population will depend on the scale of the attacks and the effectiveness of our air forces.”
Russia will not be able to plunge Ukraine into darkness this is an optimistic, but not groundless, forecast. The system has become stronger, its resilience has grown, coordination is better, and the speed of restoration is unprecedented for wartime conditions. However, no preparation gives a full guarantee: every new attack is a real risk of local or even regional outages. Restoration may take time if the damage becomes critical or the attacks reach a new massive wave.
Ultimately, the main issue is not only capacities and reserves but the duration and scale of the aggression. Ukraine is ready to endure another winter but the price of this resilience will depend on the dynamics at the front, the power of air defense, and the solidarity of energy workers.
The optimism of the energy company leadership is justified, but cautious: for a “winter without darkness” this year, maximum flexibility, professionalism, and state support will be needed.
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