War in the Middle East Shakes Tourism Market: Demand for Travel Falls and Tour Prices Drop
Military events in the Middle East have quickly affected the international tourism market. Uncertainty and news about the security situation have forced many people to reconsider their travel plans. Tourists have begun postponing bookings or choosing other destinations, which immediately affected tour sales.
Time for Action analyzed how geopolitical tension has influenced tourism demand, why package prices have begun to decrease, and what the situation currently looks like for Ukrainian travelers.
February and March are traditionally considered a period of active early bookings. It is during this time that tourists plan summer trips or spring holidays. This year, however, the situation has changed. Demand for tourist trips from Ukraine has decreased by approximately 20%. Some people decided to postpone bookings because of uncertainty and news about the escalation in the Middle East. At the same time, the reaction of tourists differs from country to country. Outside Ukraine, the drop in sales is significantly deeper. In some countries where tourism offices operate, demand for travel has fallen by almost half. The largest decline in sales is observed in Kazakhstan. For tourists from this country, the United Arab Emirates had previously been one of the main holiday destinations. After the deterioration of the security situation, many travelers began choosing alternative countries, including Vietnam, Thailand, and Egypt.
The decline in demand has immediately affected the cost of packages. A tourist package consists of two key components the price of an airline ticket and the cost of hotel accommodation. When demand falls, operators are forced to lower prices to fill flights and hotel rooms. According to the director of the travel agency “Poikhali z namy” Oleh Kulyk:
“Prices for any tours are not static they constantly change. A tourist package consists of two main parts: the cost of an airline ticket and accommodation in a hotel. Overall everything depends on demand: if tours are actively purchased, prices grow; if demand falls, they decrease.”
Currently tours have become cheaper by approximately 10–30%. For tourists this means the opportunity to travel for less money than a few months ago. For example, a week-long holiday for two in the four-star Rehana Sharm hotel in Sharm el-Sheikh previously cost around 52 thousand hryvnias. Now a similar package can be found for approximately 46 thousand hryvnias. Other examples also show a decrease in cost. A tour to The Three Corners Sea Beach Resort previously cost about 64 thousand hryvnias, and now approximately 56 thousand. The price of a holiday at EMPIRE HOTEL AQUA PARK has fallen from 45 thousand to about 36 thousand hryvnias. A similar situation is observed with the MIRAGE BAY AQUA PARK hotel, where the price has decreased from approximately 49 thousand to 40 thousand hryvnias. On average, a couple can save about 200–300 dollars. For the nearest dates in March, budget offers have even appeared on the market. Some tours to Egypt for two cost approximately 28–30 thousand hryvnias, including flights and transfers. In certain cases tour operators sell unused seats on airplanes even below cost price. For example, a ticket that usually costs about 200 euros may be offered for around 50 euros.
In European countries the drop in demand is significantly stronger. In some countries tour sales have decreased by 30–50%. The director of the travel agency explains that European tourists react very sensitively to news.
“European tourists behave differently: they are very sensitive to news. Even isolated incidents, such as drones in Poland last year, caused panic and a loss of interest in travel.”
Ukrainian tourists behave more cautiously but continue to book trips. Demand has declined, but the drop is not as sharp.
Despite changes in the market, the structure of popular destinations for Ukrainian tourists has remained almost unchanged. Three countries form the largest share of the tourist flow Egypt, Turkey, and Bulgaria. Together they account for approximately 60–70% of all tourist trips from Ukraine. Next in the list of popular destinations are Greece, Spain, and Montenegro. The United Arab Emirates occupy only the ninth place. The share of this destination is approximately 1% of the total tourism market. Trips to the Emirates belong to a more expensive segment and remain rather a niche option for holidays.
Some Ukrainian tourists are still staying in the United Arab Emirates. However, their number is gradually decreasing. Some airlines have organized evacuation flights that allow tourists to return home. According to estimates from representatives of the tourism market, it concerns several dozen people who traveled through one tourism network. Аt the same time, the Emirates are only a transit point for many travelers. The airports of Dubai and Doha remain major international hubs through which tourists travel to other popular destinations, including the Maldives or the Dominican Republic. When connecting flights are canceled or schedules change, travelers have to search for new routes. Because of this demand for airline tickets can increase sharply, and prices rise as well.
The Ukrainian tourism market is gradually recovering, but it is still far from pre-war indicators. According to estimates from industry participants, the current level of activity is approximately 40% of the volumes recorded in 2021. Several factors continue to limit full recovery. Ukraine does not have direct international flights, men face restrictions on leaving the country, and a significant number of citizens now live abroad and plan their holidays from other countries. Despite these limitations, the tourism market continues to operate and adapt to new conditions. Fluctuations in demand, changes in routes, and price shifts show that the sector remains sensitive to the international situation while gradually finding new ways to function.
About the Author
Related posts:
Bitcoin and War in the Middle East: Why Crypto Reacts First and Where It Leads 
Demand Falls, Prices Rise as Kyiv’s Housing Market Changes 
The Housing Market in Ukraine Is Reviving: Why Demand Is Growing and What Is Happening with Prices 
The Primary Housing Market in 2025: Why Demand Remains Low While Prices Rise
