Solar panels are becoming more expensive again: how the market is changing and what it means for Ukraine

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After several years of rapid decline, the solar energy market is beginning to show a new trend. Prices for photovoltaic modules are gradually rising. The increase remains moderate for now, but the trend itself is attracting attention because for a long period the cost of equipment for solar power plants had been steadily decreasing.

Time for Action analyzed what is happening on the global solar energy market, why prices are changing, and how this affects the Ukrainian renewable energy sector.

In recent years photovoltaic modules have steadily become cheaper. This was driven by the large-scale expansion of production, technological improvements, and strong competition among manufacturers. Over the past year, however, the market has recorded a shift in this dynamic. The average price of photovoltaic modules, which in 2025 was about $105 per kilowatt of installed capacity, has now increased to roughly $110. This represents an annual increase of around 5%. Industry experts do not rule out further growth. According to market forecasts, the average price in 2026 could reach approximately $121 per kilowatt.

The decisive role of China

One of the main reasons behind the change in price dynamics is China’s tax policy. China dominates the production of solar energy equipment and controls about 80% of global manufacturing capacity for photovoltaic modules. From April 1, the Chinese government is canceling the mechanism that allowed exporters of photovoltaic modules to receive a 13% value-added tax refund. For manufacturers this means higher export costs. Timur Yakymenko, marketing director of the company Atmosfera, explains that this factor has become one of the drivers of the price shift.

“Meanwhile, battery storage systems show the opposite trend. If in 2025 the average price was about $154 per kWh, it has now fallen to about $143 per kWh, or roughly 7%. This is due to the scaling of battery production and stronger competition among manufacturers.”

Different components of the market behave differently

Despite the increase in module prices, other components of energy systems show the opposite trend. This applies primarily to battery storage systems. Their prices have fallen by about 7% over the past year. While the average price previously stood at about $154 per kilowatt-hour, it has now dropped to around $143. This decline is explained by the expansion of production capacity and growing competition among manufacturers. Batteries have become one of the key elements of modern residential energy systems, which means that even a modest price reduction significantly affects the total cost of integrated solutions. As a result, a typical hybrid solar power system for households, including panels, an inverter and an energy storage system, has become on average about 5% cheaper compared with the previous year.

Business projects are already reacting to new prices

Denys Kosoy, owner of the EPC contractor ETL Group, confirms that changes in the global market have already affected solar generation projects in Ukraine. At the end of 2025 the average cost of photovoltaic modules was around $0.40–0.45 per watt including VAT. By March the price had increased to approximately $0.45–0.50 per watt. Kosoy does not rule out further price increases for photovoltaic modules due to possible growth in the cost of raw materials used in solar panel production.

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The Ukrainian solar market continues to grow

Despite the changes in pricing, the development of solar energy in Ukraine remains active. In 2025 the country built 1.5 gigawatts of new solar power plants. By comparison, in 2024 this figure was about 800 megawatts. In practice the volume of new projects nearly doubled within a year. Such dynamics indicate stable demand for solar generation both among businesses and private households.

The rise in solar panel prices appears less like a crisis and more like a natural phase in the development of the market. Over the past decade the cost of photovoltaic modules declined at record speed. At some point this process had to slow down because manufacturers cannot continuously reduce margins. China’s tax policy has simply accelerated this correction. Since Chinese companies dominate global production, even minor adjustments in their economic model quickly influence global prices. At the same time the renewable energy market remains dynamic. The declining cost of batteries partially offsets the increase in module prices, while demand for solar power plants continues to grow. In this sense the current increase in solar panel prices reflects a stabilization of the global market after a prolonged period of sharp technological cost reductions. For Ukraine it means that the development of solar energy still has strong potential, although new projects may gradually become more expensive.

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