After Khamenei Who Will Become Iran’s Next Supreme Leader and Can the System Hold
The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has instantly altered the balance of power in the region. In a state where one individual combines the role of religious authority and de facto head of state, a vacuum at the highest level means not only a personnel change but a test of the political model itself.
Time for Action analyzed how the succession system in the Islamic Republic is structured and who may become the country’s third Supreme Leader.
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Supreme Leader has held exceptional powers. He controls the armed forces, influences foreign policy, oversees the nuclear program, and shapes key state decisions. Within this model, the president and parliament perform important but subordinate functions. The death of the person who concentrated these powers inevitably creates a risk of destabilization, especially under external pressure and ongoing military strikes.
The Formal Procedure
Iran’s constitution provides a succession mechanism. Responsibility for electing a new Supreme Leader lies with the Assembly of Experts a body of 88 members elected by vote. The majority are conservative clerics.
When the position becomes vacant, governance temporarily passes to a transitional council. It includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is not a cleric, the head of the judiciary Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, and a third member appointed by the Expediency Council. On March 1, it was announced that Alireza Arafi would fill this role.
Alireza Arafi as an Initial Signal
Arafi is a cleric considered close to Khamenei. He serves as one of the two deputy heads of the Assembly of Experts and leads the country’s system of religious seminaries. His inclusion in the transitional council signals an attempt to secure religious legitimacy during the interim period.
However, this does not automatically make him the next Supreme Leader. Formally, the Assembly of Experts must elect a successor. In practice, Iranian political experience suggests that the decision is shaped within a narrow circle of influential figures.
After Raisi the Balance Shifted
Before these events, late President Ebrahim Raisi had been widely regarded as Khamenei’s protégé and a potential successor. His death in a helicopter crash in May 2024 significantly altered the equation. The scenario of a prepared and managed transition collapsed.
Since then, the succession question has remained open. Among possible figures is Sadegh Larijani, an influential conservative with positions in both the Expediency Council and the Guardian Council. His rise had been viewed as part of a strategy to strengthen conservative dominance and sideline moderates.
The Family Factor and the Security Apparatus
Another element is Mojtaba Khamenei, one of the late leader’s six children. During the 2009 anti-government protests, speculation circulated about his potential role in a future transition of power. His close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) gave him informal weight.
However, after succession discussions intensified, an influential member of the Assembly of Experts stated that Khamenei had opposed hereditary transfer of power. This reduced the likelihood of such a scenario.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains a decisive actor. The organization holds substantial influence across military, political, and economic spheres. Under conditions of external strikes and potential losses among senior commanders, the IRGC has a clear interest in preserving stability and its own position. Without its support, any succession decision is unlikely to endure.
External Pressure and Internal Reaction
American officials have openly called for regime change. Israeli and US strikes have increased tensions. This creates an additional challenge for the emerging configuration of power.
At the same time, reactions inside the country are mixed. Official mourning has been accompanied by protests, while some Iranians both domestically and abroad view the development as an opportunity for change.
Can the System Endure
Formally, the succession mechanism exists. The Assembly of Experts is tasked with electing a new Supreme Leader, while the transitional council ensures continuity of governance. In reality, the process will be determined by the balance of power among the religious establishment, conservative political factions, and the security apparatus.
The coming weeks will test the resilience of Iran’s governing model. Whether the system can quickly consolidate leadership will shape not only Iran’s internal stability but also the broader security environment of the region.
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