Iran Conflict and Fuel Prices in Ukraine: How Rising Oil May Affect Gas Stations in March 2026
The US military operation against Iran has become a new source of turbulence for the global energy market. Time for Action analyzed how geopolitical tension is influencing oil quotations, OPEC+ decisions, and fuel prices in Ukraine.
The main pressure point for the market is the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass. Reports of a possible blockade of the strait by Iranian forces were immediately priced into futures markets. Although Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that civilian vessels would not be blocked, the uncertainty itself strengthened the risk premium. By the close of trading on Friday, Brent futures had risen to $72.87 per barrel, while WTI reached $67.02. Over the weekend, Brent briefly climbed to $80 per barrel. Forecasts vary: the opening range is expected between $76 and $82, but in the event of a prolonged blockade, prices could approach $100. Levels above $120 would be possible only if the strait were blocked for an extended period without a response from OPEC. At the same time, OPEC+ announced an increase in production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April. This amounts to roughly 0.2% of global demand and would not fundamentally alter the balance in the event of major supply disruptions.
The Ukrainian market has already begun reacting to the external factor. Over the week, the average wholesale price of diesel fuel increased by 1.45 UAH per liter, reaching 53.99 UAH per liter. Globally, gasoil quotations on the London exchange rose to $750.75 per ton. Wholesale gasoline prices remained relatively stable, but retail prices started to climb. Major chains OKKO and WOG raised prices by a total of 2 UAH per liter, after which other operators adjusted their price boards as well. Average retail prices at the end of the week:
- gasoline A-95 – 62.68 UAH per liter (+1.06 UAH),
- diesel – 62.45 UAH per liter (+1.04 UAH).
Dmytro Lioushkin, founder of the Prime group of companies, stated:
“OKKO and WOG increased prices over the weekend immediately after the news about the war in Iran. And I believe that in any case other gas station chains will follow them in raising prices.”
According to his assessment, gasoline and diesel may rise by another 1–2 UAH per liter over the coming week. If Brent stabilizes within the $80–85 range, prices in March could increase on average by about 5 UAH per liter, with gradual growth of around 2 UAH per liter per week. A negative scenario is linked to a prolonged operation and loss of control over the situation.
Fuel import contracts are denominated in US dollars, while excise duties are paid in euros. Exchange rate fluctuations directly affect the final price. At the end of the week, the dollar stood at 43.21 UAH and the euro at 51.02 UAH. Under geopolitical tension, currency stability becomes an additional factor either restraining or accelerating price growth.
The LPG market has so far reacted more cautiously. The average retail price of propane-butane remained at 38.44 UAH per liter. At the same time, wholesale prices show uneven dynamics depending on the region. Algerian trader Sonatrach increased its indicative March prices: propane to $525 per ton and butane to $500. According to Mykhailo Shuban, founder of the Sintonec LPG trading system, wholesale prices could rise by 800 UAH per ton, and retail prices may have potential to add up to 0.50 UAH per liter in March. Gradual growth without sharp spikes is expected.
Future market dynamics will depend on the duration of the military operation, the actual operating regime of the Strait of Hormuz, and OPEC+ actions. If tensions ease quickly, quotations may stabilize. If logistical risks persist, Ukrainian consumers will feel it through gradual but consistent fuel price increases. The fuel market reacts quickly, though not instantly. Wholesale sets the signal, retail consolidates the trend. In March, prices on Ukrainian gas station boards will largely depend on whether the conflict remains a factor of fear or turns into a real supply deficit.
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