After Temporary Protection in the EU: What Changes for Ukrainians and What Safeguards Remain for Vulnerable Groups
More than four and a half million Ukrainians are currently residing in European Union countries under temporary protection. For most of them, the fifth year of residence in the EU will mark a transition into a new legal reality. The end of the Temporary Protection Directive does not mean automatic loss of status, but it also does not guarantee an automatic right to permanent residence. The EU is moving from an emergency support regime to an institutional settlement phase.
The main scenario now being implemented by Member States is the transfer of Ukrainians to national residence permits. No unified European model has been adopted. The current long-term residence regime does not allow the years spent under temporary protection to be automatically counted toward the five-year period required to obtain EU long-term resident status. Therefore, the recognition of time spent in the EU depends on national legislation and may differ significantly from country to country.
Some governments have already begun adapting their rules. Poland has announced a comprehensive solution to transfer hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians to Polish residence permits. In other states, legislative adjustments are underway, including revisions of salary thresholds for those who are employed. Regulations originally designed for new migrants often set high income requirements. For individuals who have already lived and worked in a country for several years under temporary protection, these thresholds are being reconsidered to facilitate a transition to a more stable legal status.
Vulnerable groups are subject to a separate approach. Recommendations of the Council of the EU provide for the possibility of maintaining conditions similar to temporary protection even after the directive formally ends. This applies to elderly people, persons with disabilities, unaccompanied minors, large families, and those who cannot return for objective reasons. Member States have agreed to ensure legal residence and basic support for such individuals until safe and feasible return becomes possible. If a person is able to travel but remains vulnerable, support is expected to continue until Ukraine can guarantee appropriate conditions. The issue of social benefits remains within the competence of national governments. In some countries, discussions are ongoing about reducing assistance. At the same time, court practice has shown that the rights of Ukrainians to child-related benefits and additional support for persons with disabilities can be upheld at the national level. The general direction within the EU is a gradual shift from an emergency protection narrative to an integration model, where Ukrainians are increasingly regarded as part of the labor market and host societies.
Economic indicators point to a growing contribution by Ukrainians to the budgets of certain Member States. In the Czech Republic, in the first half of 2025, tax revenues generated by Ukrainians amounted to 15 billion crowns, exceeding the 7.6 billion crowns spent on assistance. In Poland, migration from Ukraine is estimated to have contributed between 0.5% and 2.4% annually to GDP growth, while tax and social insurance contributions from Ukrainians are estimated at approximately 15 billion zlotys compared to less than 3 billion zlotys in family benefit payments. In several countries, employment rates among Ukrainians are approaching those of national citizens.
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Another factor was the change in Ukrainian legislation that allowed men aged 18 to 22 to leave the country. Following this decision, the share of adult men among temporary protection beneficiaries rose sharply in autumn 2025 to nearly half of all new decisions. This trend later stabilized. Under existing rules, individuals who fall under the directive have equal rights to protection regardless of gender or age.
The EU promotes a “dual approach”: integration in host countries does not exclude future return. Most Ukrainians are not ready to make a final decision while the war continues. At the same time, a voluntary return and recovery mechanism is being developed, focused on supporting local communities in Ukraine rather than providing individual cash payments. “Unity Hubs” are being launched in European cities as information centers for those considering return or wishing to maintain close ties with Ukraine. A significant step on Ukraine’s side was the legislative approval of dual citizenship, acknowledging the long-term presence of its diaspora abroad.
The end of temporary protection will not mean an abrupt break. However, there is no automatic path to permanent residence at the EU-wide level. Rules will be determined by national legislation, and the pace of adaptation will shape stability for millions of people. The European Union is moving from crisis response to long-term regulation, where integration, economic contribution, and the possibility of future return must coexist without forcing individuals to make a definitive choice.
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