Ukraine’s 2026 Sowing Campaign: Fertilizer Shortage, Weather Risks, and Grain Harvest Outlook
The situation is developing under the combined influence of three key constraints the condition of winter crops after winter, an acute shortage of mineral fertilizers, and logistical and export pressures. Weather conditions have become the first serious challenge. The exit of winter crops from dormancy remains uncertain. A portion of winter rapeseed fields is in a risk zone due to insufficient snow cover in southern regions. Reports indicate damage to the central shoot, which implies potential loss of part of the acreage. Up to one third of rapeseed fields may be at risk. The total area sown with winter rapeseed is approximately 1.1 million hectares.
If plants survive partially, farms may keep the crops, apply additional fertilization, and reassess the situation later. Reseeding is a more expensive option, so decisions will depend on the economics of each individual field. Winter wheat is also exposed to risks. In southern regions, ice crust formation has been observed, restricting air access to plants. Thaws combined with night frosts intensify stress on crops.
Despite these challenges, significant structural changes in sown areas are not expected. Local adjustments may occur if certain crops are lost. In the event of rapeseed or barley losses, they may be replaced with corn, soybeans, or sunflower. Spring rapeseed remains present in the crop structure but is less widespread due to higher risks compared to winter varieties. The most systemic challenge remains the shortage of ammonium nitrate. Market estimates suggest a deficit of up to 70% of demand. Domestic chemical plants are operating under energy constraints, high natural gas prices, and limited gas supply. Large-scale imports through deep-water ports are restricted for security reasons. Pavlo Koval stated:
“According to market estimates, the shortage of ammonium nitrate is up to 70% of demand. Domestic chemical plants cannot produce enough due to the energy crisis, high natural gas prices, and limited supply. Imports of ammonium nitrate in shiploads through deep-water ports are closed.”
Insufficient fertilization may result in grain yield losses of up to 10% or more. Limestone ammonium nitrate could serve as an alternative since it is not explosive and may be imported. However, its availability on the international market remains uncertain, and time for decision-making is limited. The projected grain harvest for 2026 is estimated at around 50 million tons. By comparison, 57.6 million tons were harvested in 2025. Even under challenging conditions, wheat production is expected to reach approximately 20 million tons. If 8–10 million tons qualify as food-grade wheat, this volume would be sufficient to meet domestic needs for several years. Therefore, food security is not currently under direct threat.
Economic pressure, however, is intensifying. Wheat exports are 25–30% lower compared to last year. As of early December, the gap reached 35%, despite similar gross harvest volumes. This creates surplus supply and pushes domestic prices downward. Pavlo Koval explained:
“This means we are lagging in tonnage, and this puts pressure on domestic prices.”
The situation is further complicated by rising logistics, freight, and insurance costs. Internal transportation is becoming more expensive due to shortages of personnel and transport capacity. At the same time, Russia is dumping grain prices in the Black Sea region, limiting the competitiveness of Ukrainian exporters.
Micro, small, and medium-sized producers remain the most vulnerable. Limited storage capacity forces them to sell grain more quickly, even under unfavorable price conditions. Storage itself carries security risks due to attacks on infrastructure. According to Koval’s estimates, around 22–22.5 million hectares will be sown in 2026, comparable to the previous year. In 2025, total sown area exceeded 23 million hectares. The scale of production is maintained, but its economic efficiency is declining.
In its January inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine lowered its forecast for oilseed production in 2026 to 20.9 million tons. The report states that oilseed production will grow moderately in 2026–2028 to 22 million tons by the end of the forecast period, but will be constrained by climate changes in southern regions, the consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, and security risks. The agricultural sector accounts for up to 55% of Ukraine’s exports, and export revenues exceeded 22 billion dollars in 2025. Therefore, even moderate declines in harvest volumes or profitability will directly affect macrofinancial stability.
The 2026 sowing campaign does not appear critical in terms of production volumes. However, the combination of weather risks, fertilizer shortages, and logistical constraints creates serious pressure on the agricultural economy. The main challenge lies not in a physical shortage of grain, but in declining profitability and reduced investment resilience of the sector in the 2026/2027 marketing year.
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