Fuel Prices in Ukraine February 2026: Falling Oil Quotations and Retail Stability
Time for Action analyzed the situation on the global oil market and its impact on Ukraine’s fuel segment. Recent dynamics show weakening global quotations alongside relative price stabilization within the country. Over the week, oil prices declined again after several weeks of growth. Although Brent and WTI futures partially recovered at the end of the period, the overall weekly result remained negative. Brent lost 0.5% over the week, while WTI fell by 1%. These figures reflect market caution regarding the future balance between supply and demand.
The publication of the U.S. inflation report briefly supported prices. Consumer price growth in January was lower than expected, reinforcing expectations of potential monetary easing. As the United States is the world’s largest consumer of crude oil, stronger economic activity could boost demand. However, this proved insufficient to reverse the broader trend.
The International Energy Agency forecasts that global demand growth this year will be weaker than previously anticipated, while the surplus of supply will remain significant. Additional uncertainty comes from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where further increases in production quotas may be discussed. The combination of slower demand growth and potential supply expansion creates the risk of continued price pressure in the spring.
In Ukraine, the configuration is different. Wholesale diesel prices declined, with the average price falling by 32 kopecks per liter over the week. Gasoline in the wholesale segment showed a more substantial decrease of 1.45 UAH per liter. The drop was influenced by lower gasoil quotations on the London exchange and slight strengthening of the hryvnia. Since import contracts are denominated in U.S. dollars and excise duties are paid in euros, currency movements directly affect cost structures. Despite this, the retail segment remains relatively stable. Average prices for A-95 gasoline and diesel increased by 38 kopecks per liter. Some networks raised prices by 50 kopecks to 1 UAH per liter. Fuel station operators are maintaining a cautious policy, balancing lower wholesale quotations with the need to preserve margins.
A key factor is the change in domestic demand. The reduction in power outages has significantly decreased fuel consumption for generators. In western regions, the drop in commercial demand reached up to 70%. In other parts of the country, the trend is also present, though less pronounced. This indicates that part of the peak demand seen during extensive blackouts is fading. Dmytro Loushkin, founder of the Prime group of companies, stated:
“In western Ukraine, this decline reached up to 70%, and in other parts of the country the trend is also observed, though the drop is not as significant.”
Retail prices are expected to remain relatively stable this week. There is potential for delayed increases of up to 1 UAH per liter, though this is unlikely before the end of February. A narrowing of the price gap between standard and premium fuel grades is also anticipated as temperatures rise.
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The LPG segment shows a different dynamic. Wholesale liquefied petroleum gas prices are rising moderately. Average daily imports in February fell by 54.6% compared to January, particularly due to a decline in maritime supplies. Higher import costs create grounds for further wholesale price increases of 500–1,000 UAH per ton. At the retail level, this could translate into an increase of 25–50 kopecks per liter.
At the same time, LPG consumption remains low, limiting the potential for sharp price increases.
The global oil market is showing signs of entering a phase of surplus supply that may restrain quotations. In Ukraine, the determining factor is domestic demand, which is decreasing alongside the reduction in power outages. In the short term, the fuel market is likely to remain in a state of relative stability with moderate fluctuations, while sharp price spikes appear unlikely.
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