Global Economy in 2026: Growth Driven by AI and Hidden Risks
The global economy is entering 2026 in what appears, at first glance, to be a paradoxical state. Despite trade restrictions, geopolitical tensions, and accumulated debt risks, global growth remains resilient. Forecasts point to growth of 3.3%, higher than expected just a few months ago. On the surface, this picture looks like a sign of recovery and adaptation. But a closer look shows that the economy is holding up not because its problems have been resolved, but because capital has become concentrated in one key area technology, above all artificial intelligence.
One of the central factors behind the upward revision of global forecasts is the sharp increase in investment in information technology. In the United States, the share of IT investment in the economy has reached its highest level since the early 2000s. This has supported business activity, stock markets, and overall investor sentiment. Importantly, this effect is not limited to the U.S. economy alone. The technology impulse is generating so-called positive spillover effects, especially for Asian economies integrated into global supply chains for technological components and equipment. In practice, the global economy is now moving according to a simple logic: as long as AI investment continues to grow, the system maintains its balance.
Adapting to trade restrictions rather than eliminating them
Another important factor is the ability of businesses to adapt to tariffs and trade barriers, rather than their disappearance. Companies have learned to restructure supply chains, redirect exports, and find alternative markets. The decline in the effective level of trade barriers has not resulted from a political reversal, but from the practical adaptation of economies to new conditions. This has helped avoid a deeper downturn after tariff shocks and preserve relative stability in global trade.
The United States and China as key points in forecast revisions
The largest contribution to improved global forecasts has come from two economies the United States and China. For the United States, the decisive factor has been massive investment in AI infrastructure: data centers, high-performance chips, and energy capacity. This has supported domestic demand and preserved growth momentum even amid high interest rates. China, in turn, has demonstrated an ability to diversify export flows, working more actively with markets in Europe and Southeast Asia. This has partially offset external restrictions and allowed for an improved outlook for 2026.
Europe looks more restrained. Growth there remains moderate and depends largely on public spending, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms, rather than on a technology boom.
Financial conditions: growth support with embedded risks
Stock markets are rising, financial conditions remain relatively favorable, and access to capital is sufficient. This creates a sense of stability. But it is precisely here that the main point of tension emerges. Growth is increasingly being financed by debt. Companies, particularly in the technology sector, are expanding borrowing in anticipation of future AI-driven profits. If these expectations fail to materialize, high leverage could quickly turn into a systemic risk. An additional factor is the rapid depreciation of technological equipment. Frequent upgrades of processors and systems reduce margins and increase the need for additional financing.
Lessons from the dot-com era: similarities without repetition
Comparisons with the dot-com boom of the late 1990s are inevitable. The share of IT investment in GDP has indeed approached levels seen at that time. But there is a key difference: the current expansion unfolded gradually, not explosively.
Moreover, corporate earnings today appear more resilient, and market valuations less detached from fundamentals. Still, vulnerabilities remain high for other reasons:
- the technology sector has become excessively dominant in equity indices;
- many critical AI-related firms are not publicly listed but rely heavily on debt financing;
- overall market capitalization relative to economic output far exceeds early-2000s levels.
This means that even a moderate correction could have a disproportionately strong impact.
Risks for low-income economies
Special attention should be paid to economies that are not integrated into the technology boom. For them, a slowdown in AI investment or a market correction would mean:
- weaker external demand;
- higher borrowing costs;
- intensified debt pressure.
As a result, the technology cycle in the United States and Asia has global consequences, even for countries that do not directly benefit from it.
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A policy balancing act: optimism versus restraint
For governments and central banks, the situation requires a delicate balance. On the one hand, innovation needs support. On the other, excessive optimism without financial discipline risks laying the groundwork for another cycle of instability.
Key policy priorities include:
- strengthening financial oversight;
- preserving central bank independence;
- gradually restoring fiscal space;
- investing in reskilling workers displaced by technological change.
The global economy in 2026 does indeed appear more resilient than previously expected. But this is resilience built on concentration rather than diversification. Artificial intelligence provides a powerful growth impulse while simultaneously increasing systemic risks. The real question is not whether the economy will grow, but at what cost and how long this balance can be sustained.
And the answer to that question will determine whether the technology boom becomes a foundation for long-term development or merely another phase on the road to the next correction.
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