Ukraine-US Security Guarantees and the $800 Billion Recovery Plan: What Is Really Being Discussed
The President of Ukraine has announced an important stage in negotiations with the United States. After a detailed briefing from the negotiating team, he instructed to finalize a document on security guarantees for Ukraine, calling it “a document of a historic level.” This is not about general intentions, but about a text which, according to the head of state, is already close to completion and should be submitted for consideration at the highest level. At the same time, this process is not happening in isolation. In parallel, the economic part of future arrangements between Ukraine and the United States is being shaped, as well as a broader format Ukraine – Europe – America. The President instructed Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko, Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka, and Minister Oleksii Sobolev to ensure full support and expert review of all economic aspects of future agreements. The basic parameters of the mechanisms for using funds that will come from partners for the country’s recovery have already been defined.
The key idea of this stage of negotiations is simple: security and recovery are seen as interconnected elements. Ukraine seeks not only financial support, but also long-term guarantees that should prevent a repeat of aggression. That is why the security guarantees document is presented as fundamentally important and as one that should define the framework for years ahead. Ukraine understands that the American side is maintaining communication with Russia regarding a basic political framework for ending the war. Kyiv has already formulated its own vision and expects clear feedback from Moscow on whether it is ready to end the war on real terms. If there is no such readiness, pressure on the aggressor, according to Ukraine’s position, must only increase. The President directly speaks about the need to expand practices aimed at combating the so-called “shadow fleet”, as well as financial schemes that allow sanctions to be bypassed. The logic is straightforward: if Russia chooses to continue the war, the response of the world should be the maximum restriction of its export revenues.
At the same time, information is circulating in the public space about preparations for a large-scale agreement on Ukraine’s post-war recovery. This refers to a plan to attract around $800 billion over ten years, which may be presented or finalized during the World Economic Forum in Davos. It is expected that this plan will open the way to loans, grants, and investment opportunities, including from private capital. It is important to understand that this is precisely about a plan and a framework of arrangements, not about a document that has already been signed and published. The details of the agreement, its structure, and the specific obligations of the parties have not yet been made public. Likewise, the text of the security guarantees document has not been published, which means that society does not yet see what exact mechanisms will form the basis of these guarantees.
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The negotiations have indeed moved to a new level, and they cover two critically important directions at once security and the economy. However, the real weight of these arrangements will depend not on loud formulations, but on the substance of the documents that still have to be presented. Davos in this story looks like a convenient political platform for agreeing on frameworks and demonstrating intentions. Yet the coming weeks will show whether these frameworks turn into clear texts with concrete commitments. For Ukraine, this is crucial: security guarantees must be not a declaration, but a working mechanism, and recovery must be not an abstract figure, but a transparent system with clear rules. At this stage, one can speak about forward movement and high stakes. But the final answer to the question of how “historic” these arrangements truly are will be given by only one thing their content and their ability to work in reality, not only in statements.
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