Ukraine’s Housing Market After the War: Why a Supply Shortage May Become Reality
The Ukrainian residential real estate market is entering a complex and, at the same time, revealing phase. Formally, it exists under conditions of war, limited demand, and high risks. But behind this visible stagnation, another reality is accumulating deferred demand and a narrowing supply, which may collide immediately after an improvement in the security situation. Throughout the full-scale war, the volume of new residential construction has significantly decreased. Some developers completely froze projects, while others postponed the launch of new phases. The reasons are obvious: high security risks, a sharp increase in construction costs, a shortage of labor, limited access to financing, and much more cautious buyer behavior. The market has ceased to be investment-driven in the classic sense. Purchasing housing at early construction stages, which before 2022 was a widespread practice, has now become the exception. At the same time, demand for housing has not disappeared. It has not materialized, but it has not dissolved either. Buyer behavior clearly shows that during periods of relative stabilization of the security situation or positive signals from the front, the number of inquiries to sales offices and actual transactions increases. This indicates that purchase decisions were postponed, not canceled.
This is where the key risk arises. Construction is a long cycle. From the start of a project to the commissioning of a building, it takes on average two to three years. Because the number of new project launches in 2023–2025 was insufficient, the market may find itself in a situation where demand recovers faster than new supply appears. The critical period may be the first or second year after security stabilization, when some Ukrainians begin returning from abroad and internal migration becomes active again.
Time for Action has analyzed all confirmed information and market dynamics and concluded that this is not about a short-term surge, but about a structural imbalance. Housing supply forms slowly, while demand, in the event of stabilization, may grow sharply. In 2026, the primary and secondary real estate markets, under existing economic and security conditions, are likely to maintain the trends of the previous year. Limited supply, high risks, and growing demand will create additional pressure on prices. There are no prerequisites for a decline in housing prices on the primary market. On the contrary, the shortage of new projects, rising construction material costs, and labor shortages are pushing prices upward.
Buyer behavior is also changing. People increasingly choose completed housing or properties with a high level of readiness, avoiding early construction stages. This further reduces the liquidity of new projects and complicates developers’ ability to launch subsequent phases. An important factor supporting demand remains the state program eOselya, especially in the primary housing segment. The market could also be strengthened by housing vouchers for military personnel and internally displaced persons. However, even these instruments do not compensate for the overall shortage of financing and limited access to mortgage mechanisms.
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On the secondary market, the situation appears no less tense. Supply is shrinking due to the destruction of housing stock, as well as owners’ reluctance to sell property during a period of uncertainty. Some properties have effectively dropped out of the market, while others are waiting for a better moment to sell. At the same time, demand persists and may even grow. Buyers are increasingly clearly defining their priorities. The greatest interest is in apartments with autonomous heating, buildings with backup power supply, and residential complexes adapted to prolonged power outages. This shapes a new demand structure but does not expand the overall number of available properties.
Data for the end of 2025 confirm the general trend: prices on both the primary and secondary markets increased in most regions of Ukraine. The largest price growth was recorded in certain western and central regions, while frontline regions remain the cheapest but also the most risky for investment. Kyiv retains its status as the most expensive market, with a noticeable gap between districts, where premium locations are growing faster than the mass segment. In summary, the residential real estate market is entering a phase where the key challenge is not so much price as the availability of housing itself. If the launch of new projects continues to be postponed and state policy does not become more predictable, the risk of a shortage will turn from a forecast into reality. Housing in Ukraine is ceasing to be merely a matter of comfort or investment. It is increasingly becoming an element of social stability. And whether the state can already create conditions for the resumption of construction will determine not only price dynamics, but also the country’s ability to retain people at the moment when a chance for a safer future emerges.
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