Scrap Metal Shortage in Ukraine 2026: Why Even Domestic Supplies Are Not Enough
In 2026, Ukraine will face an acute scrap metal shortage. This issue already concerns key market players, and the situation shows all the signs of a systemic crisis, not just temporary fluctuations.
At the conference of the Ukrainian Association of Secondary Metals on November 28, representatives of metallurgical plants stated a direct risk of shortage: “Next year, there will be a shortage of scrap on the market,” that’s how market participants described the situation. Chairman of the Board of “Interpipe Dniprovtormet” Valentyn Makarenko emphasized: “Interpipe Steel, after a temporary, forced, emergency shutdown, plans to resume steel production in December, and next year to catch up on lost volumes and increase production.”
“Metinvest” is also announcing plans to increase production. General Director of “Metinvest-Resource” Ivan Kovalevskyi said: “In 2026, production is planned to increase by 300-500 thousand tons.”
Why the Shortage Is Not Accidental, but a Systemic Problem
According to the analyst at “UkrpromzovnishEkspertyza” Serhiy Povazhniuk, “the scrap metal shortage is not situational, but structural in nature.” Scrap procurement in Ukraine has halved since the start of the full-scale invasion from 4 to less than 2 million tons per year. The main reason is “the temporary loss of industrial regions in the east and south of the country.”
Another critical detail is the need for investment. “To ramp up procurement, investment in equipment is required… Scrap procurement requires a separate site for preparation and storage, equipment, a trained crew for cutting and assembling scrap metal,” Povazhniuk explained.
Alternative Sources Do Not Save the Market
Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, military scrap seemed a logical reserve for the market. However, the volumes that the Ministry of Defense can actually provide are extremely small.
“The total stock of ferrous and non-ferrous metals on the Ministry’s balance sheet does not exceed 20-25 thousand tons. We have sold 11.5 thousand tons this year,” said the Ministry of Defense representative, adding: “The Ministry lacks the workforce to prepare the scrap.”
Plans for 2026 just 10 thousand tons. “Even when the acute phase of the war is over, we cannot guarantee an increase in scrap procurement volumes. There will not even be hundreds of thousands of tons…” The main obstacle is the explosive danger of decommissioned military equipment.
Railway scrap does not solve the problem either. “Currently, the stockpile of scrap at Ukrzaliznytsia’s sites is about 250 thousand tons. Every year, another 100 thousand resource is added,” said Deputy Director of the Property Policy Department of JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia” Tetiana Aksyonenko.
But even these resources remain only potential: “Next year, there will be up to 10 thousand cars for decommissioning. We understand that we physically lack the people or capacity to cut them…,”
In the best years, Ukrzaliznytsia could only cut 4 thousand cars per year.
As a result, the Ministry of Defense and Ukrzaliznytsia can provide only about 40 thousand tons per year just 2% of needs. “The resources of the Ministry of Defense and Ukrzaliznytsia do not solve the scrap metal shortage problem,”conference participants concluded.
To stabilize the situation, the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture has proposed a draft resolution to set a zero export quota for scrap in 2026. This will keep the scarce raw materials on the domestic market.
The problem of scrap metal shortage in Ukraine is not a temporary “breakdown” but a prolonged structural crisis. In fact:
- Procurement volumes have halved due to the loss of industrial regions.
- Metallurgical companies are already planning to increase steel output, but there is not enough raw material even for current volumes.
- Military and railway scrap are only auxiliary, not primary sources.
- Export restrictions are a forced step to preserve the market, but they do not solve the resource shortage problem.
- The solution requires investment in technical infrastructure, creation of new procurement sites, and staff training.
“We may face very high tension with scrap; to ramp up procurement, investment in equipment is required,” Serhiy Povazhniuk stated.
The main point if a systemic strategy for increasing procurement is not implemented in the near future, in 2026 the country may face an even deeper shortage, which will hinder not only steel production but also the competitiveness of the entire Ukrainian metallurgical sector.
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