Ukraine’s Oil Market 2025: How Sanctions, Attacks, and New Logistics Are Shaping Fuel Prices
The end of September 2025 was marked by another wave of turbulence on the global oil market. It all began with drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, which paralyzed the operations of the Novorossiysk and Tuapse ports. In response, global oil prices surged sharply: Brent futures rose by $0.71 to $70.13 per barrel, while American WTI increased by $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel. These are the highest quotes since August 1.
At the same time, the risk of new sanctions against Russia is increasing. US President Donald Trump is intensifying pressure on allies, demanding a complete ban on Russian oil purchases. NATO is also making tough statements about possible responses if airspace violations continue. Against this backdrop, investors are expecting additional sanctions, and the oil market remains on edge.
Recent drone attacks on Russian oil terminals have become a catalyst for the market. The halt in crude exports through Black Sea ports immediately impacted prices. Against this background, Reuters reports that OPEC+ is considering another production quota increase an additional 137,000 barrels per day. This is an effort to contain excessive price growth and maintain market control. Overall, since Donald Trump’s latest statements on the need to lower global prices, OPEC+ has already increased quotas by 2.5 million barrels per day, which is 2.4% of global demand. If the cartel expands production again, this could balance the market and lead to a correction in quotes.
The Ukrainian Market: Local Changes Matter More Than Global Shocks
Despite significant fluctuations on world exchanges, Ukrainian experts do not see a direct threat to the domestic market. Experts interviewed by Delo.ua emphasize: “A sharp jump in oil prices this week will not affect fuel prices at filling stations, as oil needs to stay high for at least two weeks for that to happen.” Therefore, in the near future, Ukrainian consumers will not feel any dramatic changes.
A much bigger risk for the market is domestic sanctions against Russian oil products. As early as October 1, the logistics of gasoline and diesel supplies may become more complicated. Ukrainian traders are preparing for changes: they are already seeking new supply channels, including via the Mediterranean. This means risks of delays, rush demand, and new price fluctuations in the wholesale segment.
According to Dmytro Leushkin, founder of the Prime group of companies, “In October, sanctions against Indian diesel and the Romanian port of Constanta, which will take effect on October 1, will have a greater impact on the Ukrainian fuel market.” He clarifies: “Supplies may be irregular, with delays, rush demand, and high supplier markups. This will not affect the retail market, but the wholesale segment, which also involves farmers and industrial enterprises, will be unstable.”
Price Dynamics: Diesel, Gasoline, LPG
According to Naftorynok, the average wholesale price of diesel in Ukraine over the week increased by 45 kopecks per liter to 47.66 UAH/liter, while wholesale prices for A-95 gasoline rose by 20 kopecks per liter to 48.98 UAH/liter. At the same time, retail prices remain stable: A-95 gasoline at gas stations 58.94 UAH/liter (down 4 kopecks), diesel 55.88 UAH/liter (down 2 kopecks).
Prices are changing mainly in regional chains: some gas stations are reducing prices, while others see slight increases. The main reason is that the wholesale market reacts faster, while retail remains stable due to surplus stocks and the cautious approach of operators.
LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) remains the most stable segment. Even with scheduled repairs at the Mazeikiai refinery in Lithuania, gas prices at gas stations remain unchanged 34.05 UAH/liter. Changes occur only in wholesale prices and are purely logistical.
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Main Risks and Forecasts for October
In fact, the main risk for the fuel market is not global quotes, but domestic restrictions, sanctions, and logistics. Starting in October, fuel will be transported to southern Ukraine from the Mediterranean through the Bosporus and Dardanelles, which, during the Black Sea storm season, may lead to delays.
Dmytro Leushkin warns: “October will be stable with minor fluctuations caused purely by logistics and the different densities of mixtures. This is because the market is fully saturated, with a tilt towards surplus, which the market periodically enters with new volumes of imported vessels in the south of the country.”
At the same time, he emphasizes: “There may be a situation where wholesale prices rise and sales fall. Because of this, gas station margins will decrease.”
Global oil markets remain under pressure from geopolitical factors attacks on infrastructure, sanctions, statements from OPEC+ and the US. However, the Ukrainian fuel market demonstrates restrained stability. Retail prices for consumers remain unchanged, even despite movements in global markets. The main risk for business and agriculture is volatility in the wholesale segment and changes in supply logistics.
From an economist’s point of view, further price dynamics in the Ukrainian fuel market will depend not only on global fluctuations but primarily on domestic decisions: sanction policy, new supply routes, and distribution efficiency. If logistics chains withstand autumn pressure, consumers will continue to avoid price shocks. But for businesses and wholesale traders, autumn will be a real test of flexibility and ability to adapt quickly.
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