Wage Growth and Inflation Risk: How Ukraine's Economic Forecast Is Changing Through 2028. What Ukrainians can expect from the updated government figures and whether real income growth will follow
In August 2025, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the updated Forecast of Economic and Social Development for 2026-2028. The document reflects revised indicators for 2025 and reassesses the outlook for wage growth, inflation, GDP dynamics, and other macroeconomic factors. For the first time, the forecast was published using two scenarios based on when security conditions in Ukraine begin to stabilize.
The updated forecast includes significantly revised data on average wages in Ukraine. Initially, the government projected that the average salary in 2025 would be UAH 24,389. However, after recalculations, this figure was raised to UAH 25,886 before taxes. At the same time, the rate of wage growth has slightly slowed compared to earlier expectations. While the previous estimate suggested an 8.1% increase, the revised forecast now projects 7.4%. The reason: inflation is higher than previously anticipated.
Two Scenarios: With or Without Security
The Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture noted:
“Given the key role of the security factor and consideration of risks to economic development, the forecast was developed using two scenarios, the primary difference being the timeline for significant improvements in Ukraine’s security situation.”
The government outlines two basic scenarios:
- Scenario 1: Security begins improving in 2026.
- Scenario 2: Security improvements are delayed until 2027.
Each scenario is tied to different macroeconomic indicators including inflation, GDP growth, and real household income.
What Ukrainians Could Earn: Forecasted Figures
Under the optimistic scenario, if the country’s security stabilizes in 2026, the government projects:
- UAH 30,240 average wage in 2026
- UAH 35,268 in 2027
- UAH 39,758 in 2028
Under the more conservative scenario, if stability is delayed until 2027:
- UAH 30,032 in 2026
- UAH 34,808 in 2027
- UAH 39,436 in 2028
In all cases, these are gross salaries (pre-tax). Real purchasing power will depend on inflation levels.
Inflation: The Primary Threat to Real Income Growth
Inflation remains the main factor that could cancel out any sense of income growth. The government also offers projections under both scenarios:
- Scenario 1: 8.6% (2026), 5.9% (2027), 5.3% (2028)
- Scenario 2: 9.9% (2026), 9.4% (2027), 7.5% (2028)
This means that even with rising nominal wages, real incomes may grow more slowly or stagnate.
How These Numbers Compare to Reality
The document makes it clear: the forecast was prepared under conditions of high uncertainty and ongoing changes to both external and internal factors. The government notes that the figures align closely with projections from the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, lending credibility to the estimates.
The authors also emphasize the importance of structural reforms implemented under the Ukraine Facility, the country’s European integration path, domestic manufacturing support programs, and investment-friendly policies. All of these, the government says, are meant to create a steady economic growth trajectory.
“Both scenarios forecast a positive impact from systemic structural reforms under the Ukraine Facility, cooperation with the IMF, EU integration, the development of Ukrainian manufacturing through ‘Made in Ukraine’ policies, favorable conditions for investors, and active private sector participation in reconstruction,” the forecast states.
What Remains Unclear
Even under the most optimistic estimates, improvements in Ukrainians’ quality of life will depend not only on salary levels, but also on access to healthcare, housing, education, stable utility prices, and currency markets. Another open question is regional and sectoral wage disparities between urban and rural areas, public and private sectors, or different industries. The forecast relies on average values, which do not always reflect everyday economic conditions for the majority of households.
The government’s projection that average salaries will surpass UAH 30,000 as early as 2026 is officially confirmed.All estimates are based on assumptions about security conditions and the effectiveness of economic policy. Still, inflation remains the key threat to real income growth. Despite macroeconomic optimism, the question remains simple: will Ukrainians not only see these numbers on paper but also feel them in their wallets? As of now, the answer depends not just on economics, but also on politics, the war, and the state’s capacity to turn plans into reality.
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